In this course, my team and I collaborated to analyze the risk of debris flow disasters in Pinglin District, New Taipei City, a major tea-producing region in northern Taiwan. Utilizing the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and rainfall data from 2001-2005, we projected the rainfall trends for the next 20 years in Pinglin. By integrating elevation and slope maps of the area, we calculated the debris flow risk distribution. Considering the population and industrial characteristics of each village, we proposed that current disaster prevention strategies should be tailored to address both climate change and local socio-economic conditions.
We found that climate change will increasingly concentrate rainfall in August and September, potentially causing economic losses for upstream tea plantations. Geographically, high-risk debris flow areas are expected to expand into more densely populated regions. We recommend adapting strategies to local industrial patterns, such as scheduling disaster drills outside the April tea harvest season, promoting fallow periods for tea plantations during high-risk months to enhance soil and water conservation, and gradually phasing out illegally expanded tea plantations in high-risk upstream areas while assisting farmers in transitioning to small-scale tea tourism.
I utilized GIS technology to process elevation and slope maps of Pinglin District, combined with projected rainfall trends under climate change scenarios to calculate the debris flow risk for the next 20 years. Additionally, I gathered socio-economic statistics for the area, contributing to the formulation of disaster prevention strategy recommendations.